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Analysis: Yen comeback may be a longer waiting game
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
One result is an uneasy calm in spot and options markets for dollar/yen as traders give up waiting for the yen to bounce. Driven weaker by the widening gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates, the yen has lost 13% on the dollar this year and at 150 is near the three-decade low of 151.94 that prompted government intervention a year ago. Market participants say what's changed is the expectation that Japan would be in the driver's seat for the yen this year. Yet together with the risk of intervention, it only seems to have stopped the yen from falling, rather than driving the sort of rally investors had been girding for at the outset of 2023. To be sure, Sachdev said interest in 'carry trades' - borrowing yen to sell for higher-interest paying currencies is waning, while investors have been keen for long exposure to yen assets.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Patrick Law, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yen, Shafali Sachdev, Sachdev, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Pacific FX, Bank of America, Bank of International Settlements, Bank of, Mizuho Securities, U.S ., Swiss, Reuters, BNP, Wealth Management, Citi, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, U.S
watch nowThe world economy may be facing conditions seen during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis — aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The Thai baht and other Asian currencies collapsed, triggering the Asian Financial Crisis and leading to slumps in stock markets. Reducing currency disparity with the U.S. dollar reduces the risks of capital flights and foreign exchange rate collapses. Nevertheless, he, too, does not anticipate another Asian Financial Crisis. watch now"They largely let exchange rates absorb the external pressure, rather than supporting the currency by selling FX reserves."
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